+VIEWS
February 15 2023
the return of El Niño, offshore-oil lease sale flops in Alaska, Colorado River challenges mount as states squabble, value of offsets questioned, turns out climate models are quite accurate
The Guardian reports that, after three years of La Niña conditions in the Pacific Ocean, climate scientists are warning of the likely return of El Niño conditions later this year. As El Niño brings warm ocean water to the surface, which heats the atmosphere, it is expected to cause global average temperatures to rise significantly in 2024. The hottest year on record, 2016, was driven by an El Niño, and The Conversation notes that during this next one a new record for global average temperature is likely. Other expected impacts include major wildfires, particularly in Asia and Australia, extreme cold in northern Europe and a drying Amazon rainforest.
An op-ed in Bloomberg notes that El Niño warming will generate short-term emergencies that could help “focus minds and dollars” on the importance of curbing carbon emissions and transitioning to green energy. Of course, “Foresight hasn’t exactly been humanity’s strong suit when it comes to climate, but it’s not too late to give it a try.”
One of Senator Joe Manchin’s demands in exchange for his vote on the Inflation Reduction Act was that the Department of Interior re-open Lease Sale 258 for oil and gas resources in Cook Inlet, Alaska. The lease sale had originally been put off for lack of interest by the oil and gas industry, but Manchin was insistent. Lawsuits to stop the lease sale were unsuccessful, and Gizmodo reports that it went ahead in late 2022 — and was a total flop. Only one bid was submitted for one of the 193 blocks available for lease…
January 31 2023
greenhouse-gas emissions and global temperatures continue to rise, EV sales and battery manufacturing booming, California still facing drought despite record rainfall, Oregon faces “firmageddon” as trees die
The Washington Post reports that the last eight years have been the hottest in human history. Unfortunately, despite this news underscoring the urgency to halt the emission of greenhouse gases, the New York Times reports that U.S. carbon emissions increased 1.3% in 2022 as compared to 2021. The increase in emissions was driven by the transportation and industrial sectors, while emissions from the electric-power sector declined as electricity production from renewables surpassed coal for the first time. The Post notes: “Researchers found that atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide are at the highest levels in more than 2 million years. Levels of methane, a short-lived but powerful greenhouse gas, have also continued to increase and are at the highest levels in 800,000 years.”
Over 90% of the energy captured by greenhouse gases goes into the ocean. The Guardian notes that ocean temperatures in 2022 were the hottest ever recorded. Salon observes that 2022 ocean temperatures broke the previous record… set in 2021. The warming ocean will bring more heat and moisture to the atmosphere, driving up air temperatures and flood risks, and also accelerating sea level rise. It is hard to grasp how much energy this represents: the article notes that in 2022 the ocean absorbed about 14 zettajoules of heat, or 14,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 joules (a zettajoule is 1021 joules). This is equivalent to releasing 400,000 Hiroshima-sized atomic bombs of energy into the ocean every day (for those interested in this calculation please see my previous post The Unseen Atom Bombs).
An interesting article in the Washington Post describes how a tagged elephant seal that swam to Antarctica helped scientists understand that warming ocean water is reaching the massive Denman Glacier. Due to the physical configuration of this glacier, it is likely prone to rapid melting if warm ocean water reaches it for an extended period of time. Such melting would result in a noticeable increase in global sea level this century. Another article in the Post reports on a recent study of ice cores concluding that the average temperature from 2001-2011 in northern Greenland was higher than at any time in the last thousand years. This is consistent with observations of surface melt and glacial retreat…
+VIEWS
February 15 2023
the return of El Niño, offshore-oil lease sale flops in Alaska, Colorado River challenges mount as states squabble, value of offsets questioned, turns out climate models are quite accurate
The Guardian reports that, after three years of La Niña conditions in the Pacific Ocean, climate scientists are warning of the likely return of El Niño conditions later this year. As El Niño brings warm ocean water to the surface, which heats the atmosphere, it is expected to cause global average temperatures to rise significantly in 2024. The hottest year on record, 2016, was driven by an El Niño, and The Conversation notes that during this next one a new record for global average temperature is likely. Other expected impacts include major wildfires, particularly in Asia and Australia, extreme cold in northern Europe and a drying Amazon rainforest.
An op-ed in Bloomberg notes that El Niño warming will generate short-term emergencies that could help “focus minds and dollars” on the importance of curbing carbon emissions and transitioning to green energy. Of course, “Foresight hasn’t exactly been humanity’s strong suit when it comes to climate, but it’s not too late to give it a try.”
One of Senator Joe Manchin’s demands in exchange for his vote on the Inflation Reduction Act was that the Department of Interior re-open Lease Sale 258 for oil and gas resources in Cook Inlet, Alaska. The lease sale had originally been put off for lack of interest by the oil and gas industry, but Manchin was insistent. Lawsuits to stop the lease sale were unsuccessful, and Gizmodo reports that it went ahead in late 2022 — and was a total flop. Only one bid was submitted for one of the 193 blocks available for lease…
January 31 2023
greenhouse-gas emissions and global temperatures continue to rise, EV sales and battery manufacturing booming, California still facing drought despite record rainfall, Oregon faces “firmageddon” as trees die
The Washington Post reports that the last eight years have been the hottest in human history. Unfortunately, despite this news underscoring the urgency to halt the emission of greenhouse gases, the New York Times reports that U.S. carbon emissions increased 1.3% in 2022 as compared to 2021. The increase in emissions was driven by the transportation and industrial sectors, while emissions from the electric-power sector declined as electricity production from renewables surpassed coal for the first time. The Post notes: “Researchers found that atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide are at the highest levels in more than 2 million years. Levels of methane, a short-lived but powerful greenhouse gas, have also continued to increase and are at the highest levels in 800,000 years.”
Over 90% of the energy captured by greenhouse gases goes into the ocean. The Guardian notes that ocean temperatures in 2022 were the hottest ever recorded. Salon observes that 2022 ocean temperatures broke the previous record… set in 2021. The warming ocean will bring more heat and moisture to the atmosphere, driving up air temperatures and flood risks, and also accelerating sea level rise. It is hard to grasp how much energy this represents: the article notes that in 2022 the ocean absorbed about 14 zettajoules of heat, or 14,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 joules (a zettajoule is 1021 joules). This is equivalent to releasing 400,000 Hiroshima-sized atomic bombs of energy into the ocean every day (for those interested in this calculation please see my previous post The Unseen Atom Bombs).
An interesting article in the Washington Post describes how a tagged elephant seal that swam to Antarctica helped scientists understand that warming ocean water is reaching the massive Denman Glacier. Due to the physical configuration of this glacier, it is likely prone to rapid melting if warm ocean water reaches it for an extended period of time. Such melting would result in a noticeable increase in global sea level this century. Another article in the Post reports on a recent study of ice cores concluding that the average temperature from 2001-2011 in northern Greenland was higher than at any time in the last thousand years. This is consistent with observations of surface melt and glacial retreat…
