February 15 2025
February 15 2025
Despite the arrival of La Niña conditions in the Pacific Ocean, and very frigid conditions in a large part of the U.S., The New York Times reports that global average temperatures in January 2025 were the hottest on record. The high global average temperature was driven by very high temperatures in the Arctic above the Hudson Bay and the Labrador Sea, which also helped reduce Arctic sea-ice extent to a record low for January. Meanwhile, The Guardian reports that the Trump Administration is responding to this danger by removing mentions of climate change from federal websites. Well, I feel safer already!
The Atlantic explores the limits of our ability to model climate, particularly as change accelerates on the planet. Climate models are skilled at average predictions across large areas, but cannot model climate on the smaller scales that are important to public decision-making. Part of this uncertainty derives from our inability to accurately model some physical processes, such as cloud formation, but also our lack of understanding of the feedbacks between the atmosphere, the land and the ocean as climate change accelerates.
Reuters reports that global sales of fully electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles rose in 2024, helped by a fourth consecutive month of record sales in December. Sales grew in China, and Britain overtook Germany as Europe’s largest EV market. Canary Media states that, in the U.S., EV sales set another record, contrary to predictions from some analysis that sales might actually decline. This was despite a drop in sales by Tesla, which previously held 80% of the U.S. EV market but now has only a 50% share. It is predicted that 25% of U.S. car sales in 2025 will be EVs or hybrids, with full EVs climbing to 10% as 15 new electric models enter the American market this year.
Canary Media reports that the Trump Administration is trying to eliminate funding programs, established by the bipartisan infrastructure law, that are building out EV charging stations around the country (the National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Formula Program and the Charging and Fueling Infrastructure Discretionary Grant Program). In seeking to demolish the programs, Trump is continuing to push the American auto industry into an increasingly non-competitive position in the global market. These efforts, besides damaging a growing industry, will harm many Republican-led states. Texas, for example, is set to receive nearly $408 million for EV charging stations from the federal programs.
Electrek notes that Republican senators have now introduced legislation that would not only repeal the $7,500 tax credit for American-made EVs that was in the Inflation Reduction Act, but also levy a $1,000 fee on new EVs as well. This fee is purportedly to address the fact that EVs use roads without paying the gasoline taxes that support road maintenance. The author explains that the rationale for establishing the fee at $1,000 makes no sense, and concludes it is just a transparent attempt to create a disincentive for EV purchases by senators who have taken major campaign contributions from the fossil-fuel industry.
Inside Climate News notes in an interview how Trump’s policies around EVs will actually serve to damage the U.S. auto industry and promote the sale of Chinese vehicles around the world. The interview states: “EVs are just so much more fun to drive than gas cars, and they’re just better. In a very short time, the EV has become better than the internal combustion car, and that improvement will just continue as every automaker introduces EVs.” After 12 years with a hybrid electric car, I just purchased an EV, and I have to agree with this assessment. “If you look at the Chinese and how they’re moving, they currently have over 50 percent EV adoption. Some other countries in Europe, Iceland and Norway are two examples, they have over 90 percent EV penetration. So effectively they don’t have non-EV sales anymore.” In The New York Times, Thomas Friedman describes how Trump’s recent executive orders will knee-cap the American auto industry in what is now a global market for automobiles.
In the January 15, 2025 In Brief, I noted that President Jimmy Carter was a visionary with respect to supporting the transition of the United States to renewable energy. We can get an insight into the thinking at the Carter White House in a one-page memo delivered to President Carter by his Science Advisor, Frank Press. The Guardian describes this memo, and it notes that the National Academy of Science was soon to be issuing a public statement on climate change (this was the Charney report). Unfortunately, the myriad of political pressures on Carter made it difficult to act with the focus Dr. Press recommended. These political pressures, and the outright disdain for climate science shown by Republican Presidents Reagan, George W. Bush and Trump, has made our climate problem much more serious.
An op-ed in The New York Times describes why Trump’s efforts to sabotage the renewable-electricity sector of the economy are likely to fail. While he may have some success slowing deployment of wind technology (which appears fueled by ignorance rather than any rational reason), the author notes that, in the United States, renewable energy is no longer a “mom-and-pop industry of enthusiasts and tinkerers.” Many so-called “red districts” in the U.S. are enjoying expanded economic activity (and tax revenue) associated with renewable energy, making many Republicans in Congress opponents of Trump’s irrational policies. The Hill notes that “the unsubsidized cost of solar power dropped almost 85 percent between 2010 and 2023, according to the Environmental Protection Agency.”
In another example of Trump’s irrational and impulsive leadership, The Guardian reports on the release (e.g., the waste) of billions of gallons of irrigation water from two federal dams in California. In trying to demonstrate that there was water in California that could “flow south” to increase fire-fighting capacity in southern California, Trump ordered the release of this water, generating flood risks downstream and preventing this stored water from being used for irrigation in the growing season. One analyst noted that “President Trump comes blundering into this complex situation with no understanding at all or no effort at understanding how it works.” And Trump signed an executive order to support the manufacture and sale of plastic straws because paper straws “explode.” The Washington Post notes that Joe Biden “aimed to phase out single-use plastic across the federal government — including straws — by ending its use in government food service operations, events and packaging by 2027 and all federal operations by 2035.”
Canary Media describes the conclusions of a recent report from the U.S. National Renewable Energy Laboratory on the promise of floating solar-panel arrays in the U.S. While most solar arrays are deployed on land (or the top of buildings), it is quite possible to use floating rafts of solar panels to generate electricity. These installations, frequently called “floatovoltaics,” avoid the land-use conflicts that sometimes challenge new land-based solar arrays. In addition, floating solar arrays “shade water bodies, which reduces evaporation and conserves limited water supply at reservoirs. Water also cools down the panels, making them up to 15% more efficient than land-based solar.” At present, the largest floating solar array in the U.S. is an 8.9-megawatt installation at a water treatment plant in Millburn, New Jersey. This compares to a 45-MW array at the Sirindhorn reservoir in Thailand, or China’s massive 550-MW system at an aquaculture facility in Wenzhou.
Another innovative deployment strategy for solar panels is in agriculture, an approach often termed “agrivoltaics.” Mongabay describes how this strategy is becoming popular in India. New strategies with regard to panel spacing and integration, rainwater harvesting and revised farming practices are making it easier to scale up these installations. “Globally, agrivoltaic installed capacity is estimated to have grown from about 5 MW in 2012 to approximately 2.9 GW in 2021, in countries including France, Germany, Italy, Japan, and China.” PV Magazine reports that, in China, a large agrivoltaic installation has come online that uses high-efficiency perovskite solar cells.