The Washington Post reports that, despite the end of the 2023 El Niño, 2024 is likely going to be the hottest year on record. With an average global temperature of 1.55°C above preindustrial times, 2024 will be the first year to exceed the 1.5°C threshold. The persistence and extent of high ocean and air temperatures, and the scale of the exceedance above previous years, has some scientists wondering if “fundamental changes are happening to the global climate that are raising temperatures faster than anticipated.” The record heat will impact atmospheric circulation across the planet, altering weather everywhere.

In Yale e360, Elizabeth Kolbert interviews NASA climate scientist Gavin Schmidt about why 2023 and 2024 have turned out to be hotter than scientists predicted. They discuss a variety of possibilities, including the reduction of sulfate particles due to the clean-up of emissions from ocean-going ships, and the injection of water vapor into the stratosphere by the January 2022 eruption of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai volcano. Inside Climate News notes that a recent study documented the decline of the low-altitude cloud cover that reflects sunlight. While possibly linked to reduced emissions from ships, it also could be that as the planet warms less clouds will form, which is another tipping point we don’t want to cross.

The New York Times reports an announcement by California governor Gavin Newsom that, if the Trump Administration is successful at eliminating the federal tax credits for electric vehicles, California will restart its EV rebate program. Eliminating the credit would require an act of Congress, since the credits were contained in the Inflation Reduction Act. EVs are very popular in California, as the five cities with the most EVs are located in the state. Over 30% of recent new car registrations in the San Francisco Bay area were EVs, and 25% in the Los Angeles area. Newsom said: “We’re not turning our back on a clean transportation future — we’re going to make it more affordable for people to drive vehicles that don’t pollute.”

Meanwhile, the auto industry itself is supporting government regulations designed to advance the use of EVs in the U.S., although Trump’s grievances with the industry make this a delicate conversation. The New York Times notes that “Ford, G.M., Stellantis and others have invested about $146 billion over the past three years in the design, engineering and manufacturing of electric vehicles.” There are now more than three dozen EV battery factories in the country, compared to just three when Trump first took office in 2017. The American auto industry, which resisted electrification for years, is going to continue to require tariff protection from the cheaper and ever-more well-reviewed Chinese automobiles. The New York Times describes the remarkable sales growth in Mexico and Brazil for cars made in China. Especially popular is BYD’s Dolphin Mini, a small electric car that retails for $18,000.

Large retailers are beginning to see the benefits of installing charging stations at their locations, according to The New York Times. While the traditional rationale has been to attract customers who can shop while their car is charging, companies like Walmart are now beginning to see that charging is in itself a profitable venture. However, charging is still hard to come by at retail centers. A recent survey determined that charging stations are only available at one in every 14 big-box stores, one in every 15 grocery stores and one in every 40 department stores. The article reviews the challenges facing retailers who want to install charging stations, and recent innovations designed to accelerate the practice.

While Republican leaders (including President-elect Trump) are talking about repealing the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), The New York Times describes the scale of investment that the Act has stimulated around the country, particularly in Republican districts. Over 80% of the announced investments have been in Republican areas. The article’s author visits Randolph County, in central North Carolina, where Toyota has announced a series of expansions that could invest more than $12 billion in the region. In the recent election, 78% of Randolph County voters cast their ballot for Donald Trump, but I doubt they were hoping he’d interfere with Toyota’s plans. Indeed, 18 Republicans have sent a letter to Speaker Johnson arguing that changes to the IRA should “protect and refine tax incentives” (translation: don’t impact my district!).

The latest update from the Department of Deluges: Reuters reports that six months of rain fell in five days in Malaysia, causing deaths and extensive destruction. Including nearby areas of Thailand, over 450,000 homes were damaged in the flooding, with more rain expected. At some point, we’ll have to realize that what constitutes “six months worth of rain” has changed. Unless we rework our flood-control infrastructure and land-use patterns, this type of damage will continue into the future. Meanwhile, The New York Times notes that Maine became the latest state to file suit against fossil-fuel companies, claiming they knowingly deceived residents about the impact of their products. While this claim is supported by ample evidence, these types of cases have seen limited success in the courts.

One impact of climate change, in conjunction with other human disruptions of natural systems, is an astonishing decline in the abundance of species around the world. An op-ed in Scientific American notes that global wildlife populations have declined by 73%, including fish, birds, mammals, reptiles and insects. But the article focuses on the possibility of reversing these trends, as demonstrated along California’s Klamath River. Once the third-largest run of salmon on the west coast of the U.S., hydroelectric dams and water diversions for agriculture decimated the anadromous fish populations. Through decades-long activism and planning, the dams have now been removed, and salmon are already expanding into the re-opened historic habitat. This is only one watershed, but restoration is slowly occurring in many others, including in the Bay Area (see Unleashing Climate Optimism). Restoration undertakings — watershed by watershed, forest by forest, grassland by grassland — may seem incremental, but it is the only way we’ll reverse the loss of biodiversity in the world.

Inside Climate News reports that extreme weather, in this instance drought in Vietnam and Brazil, is driving up the price of coffee. This is a portent of things to come, as climate projections suggest that by 2050 coffee producing regions will have shrunk by half. In September, Brazil’s National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters said the country was undergoing the “most intense and widespread drought in history.” It probably goes without saying, but the loss of coffee would spell the end of In Brief Climate News.

The Washington Post’s climate columnist reflects, after the birth of his second child, on his hope for climate action. He notes that the fossil record demonstrates that speciation can occur gradually or relatively quickly, and argues by analogy that we are seeing the latter situation take place for climate action. Political obstacles to action, many of which he expects to see revived by the Trump Administration, will become harder to build and maintain as the cost of renewable energy continues to fall. The Economist recently reported that the incremental cost of cutting emissions has already fallen to under $1 trillion a year, which is less than 1% of global GDP. This is reminiscent of Al Gore’s formulation of Dornbusch’s Law: “Things take longer to happen than you think they will, but then they happen much faster than you thought they could.”

I hope everyone has a happy and healthy holiday season.

< back to news+views