April 30 2025

April 30 2025

atmospheric CO2 shows major jump in 2024, Trump tries to slow clean-energy transition, wind and solar generate more power in 2024 than coal, solar dominates Texas’ “free market” for electricity

CNN reports that the U.S. government announced that the concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2 ) in the atmosphere jumped last year by a record 3.75 parts per million, which was 25% larger than the previous record jump in 2015. This put the average concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere at 422.7 ppm, a level not seen on Earth in at least 3 million years. These astonishing measurements were released by the Trump Administration on X, with no press release or other publicly-facing statements. In the past, NOAA scientists would have been available to the press, and extensive analyses would have been made by government scientists and other public officials. Instead, the Trump Administration is trying to hide this reality, an action that is ignorant, foolish, cruel and dangerous.

The Washington Post discusses the concern among scientists that this record increase in CO2 indicates that “Earth’s ecosystems are so stressed by warming they can no longer absorb much of the pollution humanity emits.” Terrestrial ecosystems and the ocean historically have absorbed about half of our fossil-fuel emissions, moderating what otherwise would be an even steeper temperature rise. Initial studies suggest that extreme drought and massive wildfires released enormous amounts of CO2 last year, making these processes a major contributor to the increase in the atmosphere. Emissions from the burning of fossil fuels rose by only 0.8% in 2024, not enough to explain the atmospheric increase.

The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists reviews how passing through tipping points could cause changes in the Earth’s climate to accelerate, independent of human actions to reduce emissions. It is the existence of these tipping points that makes our current climate situation an emergency, as I argued in a previous blog post. The record rise in carbon-dioxide concentrations last year could signal that we have already passed through certain tipping points. That would be a grave development for the future of human civilization, but we won’t know for sure until we have many more years of data. It is essential that we do not wait until then to take action.

Meanwhile, the Trump Administration continues to try and slow the transition to clean energy. Inside Climate News reports that, under directions from Secretary of Interior Doug Burgum, the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management ordered a halt on all construction of Empire Wind 1, the first large-scale offshore-wind project in New York. The project “was granted a lease from the federal government in 2017, promised to create over 1,500 jobs and ultimately power 500,000 homes by building 54 wind turbines.” Burgum claims that the government needs to conduct a further review of information that “suggests the Biden administration rushed through its approval without sufficient analysis.” (Fast Company describes how preposterous that statement is, given that the planning for the project began in 2011.) Canary Media notes that the project was already two weeks into at-sea work, which is now stopped. Onshore work was not impacted by the Trump Administration’s order, and about 1,500 people have been constructing the 73-acre support facility since June. This work is helping revitalize a stretch of industrial shoreline that has been vacant since 1990, and it has the strong support of the local community.

In addition, the Department of Interior just announced that they will be accelerating permitting for fossil-fuel projects in order to “achieve American energy dominance.” Instead of permitting taking well over a year as impacts are thoroughly considered, this new policy will result in permits being issued in 14 to 28 days. Gee, what could go wrong? Of course, this process does not apply to renewable-energy projects (except geothermal, which I guess falls under the “drill baby drill” theology).

Scientific American reports that wind and utility-scale solar generated more electricity last year than coal. Unfortunately, demand for electricity continues to grow, and natural-gas power plants also expanded last year. Consequently, carbon emissions from the power sector remain stubbornly unchanged. “A decade ago, coal generated almost 40 percent of U.S. power generation while wind and solar accounted for less than 5 percent. In 2024, wind and solar nudged out coal, accounting for 15.5 percent of utility power generation to 15.2 percent for coal. The tipping point followed a surge in solar installations last year. The 30 GW of new solar capacity installed in 2024 smashed the previous record of 19 GW set in 2023.”

Canary Media notes that, “For the first time, fossil fuels accounted for less than half of U.S. electricity production across an entire month as clean power generation surged in March.” Reuters reports that “European Union countries are projected to install a record amount of renewable energy capacity this year.”

Inside Climate News describes how the economic instability created by Trump’s absurd tariff policies might influence the expansion of renewable power. There are direct negative impacts, such as placing a 46% tariff on imports from Vietnam, which currently is the leading exporter of solar panels to the U.S. The general climate of instability, however, creates an incentive for countries that import fossil fuels to develop renewable sources of energy as a security strategy. The article describes economic scenarios created by Shell Oil, and how they foresaw the possibility of nations becoming energy “islands” by developing native energy resources to make themselves less dependent on imported fuels. In The New York Times, Robinson Meyer provides a broader context for how Trump’s anti-science policies are damaging the country and the planet.

For the wonky among us, I highly recommend the recent episode of the Volts podcast about electricity in Texas (I know, sounds exciting….). The devotion of Texas politicians to the “free market” has led to less regulation of electricity in that state, and an easier path to adding capacity to their grid, which is separate from the rest of the nation. They have consequently created the perfect laboratory to test what is the lowest-cost electricity, and the result is that solar, wind and batteries represent over 90% of the new capacity installed in Texas over the last several years. This has caused many Texas politicians to sour on their free-market experiment, as their actual commitment is to fossil-fuel companies rather than their electricity consumers. Some crazy bills have been introduced in the Texas state senate, including one that would require a gigawatt of gas power be installed for every gigawatt of solar (this would exceed the actual gas-turbine manufacturing capacity in the U.S.). Meanwhile, many rural Texas counties are enjoying the new revenue being generated by renewable-energy facilities, and the renewable resources have been critical to keeping the Texas grid stable during peak-demand periods. The podcast includes fascinating technical and political twists and turns.

IN BRIEF: PAST
CLIMATE NEWS
 

MORE MY TAKES