+VIEWS
March 15 2023
massive snowfall challenging California, moving towards electric trucks, electric grid not ready for the renewable-energy revolution, atmospheric scientists adapt as volcano erupts, North Dakota may sue Minnesota over renewable-energy law
It is a physical fact that warm air holds more moisture. This is a key reason our warming world is facing more extreme precipitation events. While we tend to think of these events as rainfall and subsequent flooding, massive snowfall can also be dangerous and damaging. The New York Times describes the impacts of massive snowfall in southern California’s San Bernardino Mountains, which are proving to be far-reaching (update). People cannot get to their homes, people cannot leave their homes, medicine, groceries and other supplies are not available, fire hydrants are encased in ice, grocery stores with already limited supplies have to close as their roofs collapse — the list goes on. We all must recognize that this is our new climate, and that we’ll have to live in this climate even if we engineer a fast and thorough transition away from fossil fuels.
Salon notes that, despite a snowpack that is almost twice the average, California is not out of the drought. Analysts say that it would take three or four winters like this one in a row to alleviate the drought, including rebuilding groundwater supplies and returning soil- and vegetation-moisture content to pre-drought conditions. Meanwhile, the San Francisco Chronicle describes a major risk that the state now faces because of the large snowpack: warm rainstorms that result in a fast and extensive snowmelt, generating major flooding. Warm rainstorms were at the heart of major floods in California, including the 2017 Feather River flood that damaged the Oroville reservoir, the 1997 flood on the San Joaquin River and the Great Flood of 1862. The New York Times quotes U.C. Davis Professor Jeffrey Mount, who notes that we are in “uncharted territory,” as the water content of the snowpack in the southern Sierra is the largest ever recorded. “It is worth remembering that almost all of our flood management infrastructure is more than a half-century old and designed around the climate of the past.”
Mother Nature decided to prove the point as a relatively warm atmospheric river struck California on March 9-10, with warnings that conditions “could get ugly.” The area around Fresno was expecting particularly heavy rain that would melt snow (flood warnings were issued on March 10). The Guardian quoted a representative of the National Weather Service (NWS): “We want everyone to be prepared for conditions we’ve never experienced before.” I think that should be considered as a NWS motto going forward. While it will take more than one warm rainfall to melt the deep snow pack higher in the mountains, as the rainfall freezes in this deep snow it adds weight. The New York Times describes the increasing stress on Sierra residents’ roofs as the snow depth grows, and how levees are failing in the lowlands as rivers flood…
February 28 2023
cracks under the Thwaites Glacier, “a mass exodus on a biblical scale”, climate change drives real-estate bubble, a growing demand for lithium and other minerals, new solar cheaper than operating existing coal plants
Last year, a scientific expedition reached the ice shelf of the Thwaites Glacier in Antarctica, one of the most remote locations in the world. In a masterpiece of logistics, the members of the expedition drilled a hole 2,000 feet into the ice, through which a remote probe was lowered to study the water under the ice and the underside of the ice shelf. The results of this work was recently published, and The Washington Post reports that scientists found that the warming ocean is cutting into the underside of the ice. This will leave the ice shelf more prone to fracturing, heightening the risk for major sea level rise. The Thwaites Glacier is about 80 miles across, with an area larger than Florida, and it’s nicknamed “the doomsday glacier” because of its singular capacity to contribute to sea level rise. Since 1979, the glacier has lost a little less than 20 billion tons of ice per year, but that has increased to more than 40 billion tons since 2010.
The Guardian reports on a recent call by the Secretary-General of the United Nations António Guterres to address sea level rise. He said, “low-lying communities and entire countries could disappear forever. We would witness a mass exodus of entire populations on a biblical scale. And we would see ever fiercer competition for fresh water, land and other resources.” He added: “People’s human rights do not disappear because their homes do… this means international refugee law.” Inside Climate News reviewed the speech as well, noting that “Guterres said the danger is most acute for about 900 million living in low-lying coastal zones. That’s one out of 10 people on earth.” The key reality Guterres focuses on is that, even if the world somehow meets the goal of limiting the rise of global average temperature to 1.5°C, there still will be a lot of sea level rise over the coming centuries. And we’re currently nowhere near meeting that goal.
The Washington Post reports on a recent study that describes a growing real-estate bubble in the U.S. as properties eventually lose value due to climate change. Driving the current over-valuation is federal flood maps that don’t reflect the true scope of risk, government insurance policies that subsidize development in flood-prone areas and buyers who haven’t accepted the dangers posed by climate change. The study estimates that properties in vulnerable areas of the U.S. are overvalued by $121-$237 billion. If those risks are brought into the market by changed policies or increased understanding, low-income homeowners in particular stand to lose significant amounts of equity. In addition, many municipal governments that rely heavily on property taxes could face huge budget shortfalls as assessed values drop. The researchers concluded that properties in Florida are overvalued by $50 billion based on their actual flood exposure (as I noted in Observations from Another Planet, the physics are going to crash the party in Florida eventually). Grist examines the vulnerability of Stockton, California, to a major flood event on the San Joaquin River. The article describes the challenges a poorer city like Stockton has in obtaining funding for flood protection…
+VIEWS
March 15 2023
massive snowfall challenging California, moving towards electric trucks, electric grid not ready for the renewable-energy revolution, atmospheric scientists adapt as volcano erupts, North Dakota may sue Minnesota over renewable-energy law
It is a physical fact that warm air holds more moisture. This is a key reason our warming world is facing more extreme precipitation events. While we tend to think of these events as rainfall and subsequent flooding, massive snowfall can also be dangerous and damaging. The New York Times describes the impacts of massive snowfall in southern California’s San Bernardino Mountains, which are proving to be far-reaching (update). People cannot get to their homes, people cannot leave their homes, medicine, groceries and other supplies are not available, fire hydrants are encased in ice, grocery stores with already limited supplies have to close as their roofs collapse — the list goes on. We all must recognize that this is our new climate, and that we’ll have to live in this climate even if we engineer a fast and thorough transition away from fossil fuels.
Salon notes that, despite a snowpack that is almost twice the average, California is not out of the drought. Analysts say that it would take three or four winters like this one in a row to alleviate the drought, including rebuilding groundwater supplies and returning soil- and vegetation-moisture content to pre-drought conditions. Meanwhile, the San Francisco Chronicle describes a major risk that the state now faces because of the large snowpack: warm rainstorms that result in a fast and extensive snowmelt, generating major flooding. Warm rainstorms were at the heart of major floods in California, including the 2017 Feather River flood that damaged the Oroville reservoir, the 1997 flood on the San Joaquin River and the Great Flood of 1862. The New York Times quotes U.C. Davis Professor Jeffrey Mount, who notes that we are in “uncharted territory,” as the water content of the snowpack in the southern Sierra is the largest ever recorded. “It is worth remembering that almost all of our flood management infrastructure is more than a half-century old and designed around the climate of the past.”
Mother Nature decided to prove the point as a relatively warm atmospheric river struck California on March 9-10, with warnings that conditions “could get ugly.” The area around Fresno was expecting particularly heavy rain that would melt snow (flood warnings were issued on March 10). The Guardian quoted a representative of the National Weather Service (NWS): “We want everyone to be prepared for conditions we’ve never experienced before.” I think that should be considered as a NWS motto going forward. While it will take more than one warm rainfall to melt the deep snow pack higher in the mountains, as the rainfall freezes in this deep snow it adds weight. The New York Times describes the increasing stress on Sierra residents’ roofs as the snow depth grows, and how levees are failing in the lowlands as rivers flood…
February 28 2023
cracks under the Thwaites Glacier, “a mass exodus on a biblical scale”, climate change drives real-estate bubble, a growing demand for lithium and other minerals, new solar cheaper than operating existing coal plants
Last year, a scientific expedition reached the ice shelf of the Thwaites Glacier in Antarctica, one of the most remote locations in the world. In a masterpiece of logistics, the members of the expedition drilled a hole 2,000 feet into the ice, through which a remote probe was lowered to study the water under the ice and the underside of the ice shelf. The results of this work was recently published, and The Washington Post reports that scientists found that the warming ocean is cutting into the underside of the ice. This will leave the ice shelf more prone to fracturing, heightening the risk for major sea level rise. The Thwaites Glacier is about 80 miles across, with an area larger than Florida, and it’s nicknamed “the doomsday glacier” because of its singular capacity to contribute to sea level rise. Since 1979, the glacier has lost a little less than 20 billion tons of ice per year, but that has increased to more than 40 billion tons since 2010.
The Guardian reports on a recent call by the Secretary-General of the United Nations António Guterres to address sea level rise. He said, “low-lying communities and entire countries could disappear forever. We would witness a mass exodus of entire populations on a biblical scale. And we would see ever fiercer competition for fresh water, land and other resources.” He added: “People’s human rights do not disappear because their homes do… this means international refugee law.” Inside Climate News reviewed the speech as well, noting that “Guterres said the danger is most acute for about 900 million living in low-lying coastal zones. That’s one out of 10 people on earth.” The key reality Guterres focuses on is that, even if the world somehow meets the goal of limiting the rise of global average temperature to 1.5°C, there still will be a lot of sea level rise over the coming centuries. And we’re currently nowhere near meeting that goal.
The Washington Post reports on a recent study that describes a growing real-estate bubble in the U.S. as properties eventually lose value due to climate change. Driving the current over-valuation is federal flood maps that don’t reflect the true scope of risk, government insurance policies that subsidize development in flood-prone areas and buyers who haven’t accepted the dangers posed by climate change. The study estimates that properties in vulnerable areas of the U.S. are overvalued by $121-$237 billion. If those risks are brought into the market by changed policies or increased understanding, low-income homeowners in particular stand to lose significant amounts of equity. In addition, many municipal governments that rely heavily on property taxes could face huge budget shortfalls as assessed values drop. The researchers concluded that properties in Florida are overvalued by $50 billion based on their actual flood exposure (as I noted in Observations from Another Planet, the physics are going to crash the party in Florida eventually). Grist examines the vulnerability of Stockton, California, to a major flood event on the San Joaquin River. The article describes the challenges a poorer city like Stockton has in obtaining funding for flood protection…
